Intel Corporation
INTC · Semiconductors
Designs and manufactures processors for PCs and servers, and is building a contract chip-manufacturing business (Intel Foundry).
Model built Oct 12, 2026 · latest annual filing FY2025 · figures in USD
Assumptions
Start from
Years 1-5
Average per year
Starting: 13.8%
Operating profit as % of revenue, average
Starting: 16.4%
Capex as % of revenue, average
Starting: 28.4%
The long run
Growth fades to this by year 10, then continues forever
Starting: 3.0%
Profit earned on each dollar reinvested after year 5. Sets how much capex growth needs
Starting: 40.3%
The yearly return you require for the risk
Starting: 15.5%
Value per share
10 years of cash flows plus a value for everything after, all discounted to today.
Starting model (base)
$10
57% of this value comes from after year 10.
-89%
Arithmetic only, not a recommendation.What the price implies: buying at $94 earns about 5.6% a year if these cash flows play out, compared with the 15.5% discount rate.
Revenue and free cash flow
Last 5 years reported (SEC filings), then 10 years projected: years 1-5 from the assumptions, years 6-10 fading to the long run.
Projected free cash flow = operating profit after tax + depreciation - capex - working capital. Reported free cash flow = operating cash flow - capex, so the two are close but not identical.
Where the starting numbers come from
The years 1-5 assumptions were set by AI using the company's SEC filings, its own guidance and judgment about what is one-off. The reasoning for each line is under the i next to it. They are a starting point to react to, not a view. Compare them with what actually happened:
| Assumption | Starting (yrs 1-5 avg) | Reported (5 years to FY2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 13.8% | -7.5% a year |
| Operating margin | 16.4% | 0.5% average |
| Capex % revenue | 28.4% | 36.7% average |
- Years 6-10 are calculated, not guessed: growth slides from the year-5 rate (8.0%) down to long-term growth (3.0%); margin and depreciation stay at year-5 levels; capex moves from 22.0% of revenue to 20.3%, which is depreciation plus what it takes to keep growing.
- Return on new invested capital (RONIC) 40%: what the years 1-5 assumptions themselves imply (extra after-tax operating profit by year 5 divided by the extra investment made to get there), kept between the discount rate and 100%.
- Discount rate 15.5%: cost of equity = risk-free rate 5.24% (US 10-year Treasury) + beta 2.23 x equity risk premium 5.0% = 16.4%; blended with cost of debt 6.0% after tax at 8% debt weight.
- Historical figures: SEC EDGAR annual filings (10-K). Share count and net debt from the latest filing used for the model.