How the DCF Playground works

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates what a business is worth today from the cash it could produce in the future. You guess how fast revenue grows, how much of it turns into profit and cash, and how much return you need for the risk. The model adds up that future cash, worth less the further away it is.

What you are looking at

• Starting model: Bear, Base and Bull assumptions set by AI from each company's SEC filings, its own guidance and judgment about what is one-off. Each line has a one-sentence note explaining how its starting number was set. They are a starting point to react to, not a view or a recommendation.
• Your version: move any slider and the value updates instantly. Nothing you change affects anyone else.
• One method, 10 years: years 1-5 come from the starting model. Years 6-10 are calculated: growth fades to the long-term rate, and capital spending moves to depreciation plus what it takes to keep growing (set by the return on new invested capital (RONIC)). After year 10, cash flow grows at the long-term rate forever. Everything is discounted to today at the discount rate. There are no exit multiples, so the value rests only on cash the business produces.
• Gap and implied return: the value compared with a share price, and the yearly return you would earn buying at that price if the cash flows play out. Arithmetic, not a signal.

Limits

• A DCF is only as good as its assumptions. Small changes in growth or discount rate move the value a lot.
• Banks, insurers and oil and gas producers need different models and are not included yet.
• This is a beta. Numbers may contain errors and are refreshed after new annual and quarterly filings. Each page shows when its model was built.

Educational use only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.