UNH
UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare·Managed Health Care
Current Price
$288.91
Market Cap
$262.3B
Net Debt
$50.3B
Shares Outstanding
0.91B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q3 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.1B | $94.2B | $101.9B | $110.6B | $122.5B | $130.5B | $157.1B | $184.8B | $201.2B | $226.2B | $242.2B | $257.1B | $287.6B | $324.2B | $371.6B | $400.3B | $447.6B | $422.6B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 20.4% | 17.7% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% |
| Operating Income | $6.4B | $7.9B | $8.5B | $9.3B | $9.6B | $10.3B | $11.0B | $12.9B | $15.2B | $17.3B | $19.7B | $22.4B | $24.0B | $28.4B | $32.4B | $32.3B | $19.0B | $32.1B |
| Operating Margin | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 7.6% |
| Net Income | $3.8B | $4.6B | $5.1B | $5.5B | $5.6B | $5.6B | $5.8B | $7.0B | $10.6B | $12.0B | $13.8B | $15.4B | $17.3B | $20.1B | $22.4B | $14.4B | $12.1B | $6.3B |
| Net Margin | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.24 | $4.10 | $4.73 | $5.28 | $5.50 | $5.70 | $6.01 | $7.25 | $10.72 | $12.19 | $14.33 | $16.03 | $18.08 | $21.18 | $23.86 | $15.51 | $13.23 | $7.02 |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.9B | $5.4B | $5.9B | $6.1B | $5.7B | $6.5B | $8.2B | $8.1B | $11.6B | $13.7B | $16.4B | $20.1B | $19.9B | $23.4B | $25.7B | $20.7B | $16.1B | $8.1B |
| FCF Margin | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.1B | $94.2B | $101.9B | $110.6B | $122.5B | $130.5B | $157.1B | $184.8B | $201.2B | $226.2B | $242.2B | $257.1B | $287.6B | $324.2B | $371.6B | $400.3B | $447.6B |
| Growth | — | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 20.4% | 17.7% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 11.8% |
| EBIT | $6.4B | $7.9B | $8.5B | $9.3B | $9.6B | $10.3B | $11.0B | $12.9B | $15.2B | $17.3B | $19.7B | $22.4B | $24.0B | $28.4B | $32.4B | $32.3B | $19.0B |
| EBIT Margin | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% |
| NOPAT | $4.4B | $5.1B | $5.6B | $6.2B | $6.4B | $6.2B | $6.7B | $8.1B | $12.0B | $13.8B | $15.9B | $17.4B | $19.4B | $22.7B | $26.4B | $27.5B | $17.1B |
| D&A | $991M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $4.0B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| CapEx | $739M | $878M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.4B | $3.5B | $3.6B |
| ΔNWC | $0 | -$1.3B | $1.7B | -$2.5B | -$1.4B | $434M | -$4.2B | -$4.1B | $2.0B | -$1.1B | -$4.6B | $446M | $2.2B | -$3.6B | -$449M | $2.6B | -$6.3B |
| Unlevered FCF | $4.6B | $6.6B | $4.0B | $8.9B | $7.9B | $5.8B | $11.0B | $12.6B | $10.2B | $15.3B | $21.2B | $17.8B | $17.9B | $27.0B | $27.4B | $25.4B | $24.1B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$553.79
vs $288.91+91.7%
Exit Multiple
$813.10
vs $288.91+181.4%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $487.8B | $526.9B | $563.8B | $603.2B | $639.4B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $39.0B | $42.2B | $50.7B | $54.3B | $57.5B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $30.4B | $32.9B | $39.6B | $42.3B | $44.9B |
| NOPAT Margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| D&A | $4.9B | $5.3B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.4B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $4.9B | $5.3B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.4B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $4.9B | $5.3B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.4B |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $25.6B | $27.6B | $33.9B | $36.3B | $38.5B |
| PV of UFCF | $23.5B | $23.2B | $26.2B | $25.7B | $25.0B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $23.5B | $46.7B | $72.9B | $98.6B | $123.6B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$123.6B
PV of Terminal Value$429.5B
Enterprise Value$553.1B
Less: Net Debt-$50.3B
Equity Value$502.8B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$123.6B
PV of Terminal Value$664.9B
Enterprise Value$788.6B
Less: Net Debt-$50.3B
Equity Value$738.3B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $705.35 | $777.22 | $867.06 | $982.57 | $1136.57 |
| 8.0% | $575.17 | $622.39 | $679.04 | $748.29 | $834.84 |
| 9.0% | $482.28 | $515.29 | $553.79 | $599.29 | $653.90 |
| 10.0% | $412.69 | $436.82 | $464.40 | $496.22 | $533.34 |
| 11.0% | $358.64 | $376.89 | $397.42 | $420.69 | $447.29 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 10x | 13x | 16x | 19x | 22x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $590.84 | $741.46 | $892.09 | $1042.72 | $1193.34 |
| 8.0% | $563.96 | $707.74 | $851.52 | $995.30 | $1139.08 |
| 9.0% | $538.49 | $675.79 | $813.10 | $950.40 | $1087.71 |
| 10.0% | $514.33 | $645.51 | $776.69 | $907.86 | $1039.04 |
| 11.0% | $491.42 | $616.79 | $742.17 | $867.54 | $992.91 |
Investment Thesis
UnitedHealth Group is the largest US health insurer and healthcare services company, combining insurance (UnitedHealthcare) with a vertically integrated services platform (Optum). The company benefits from an aging population, healthcare cost complexity, and its unique ability to capture value across the healthcare value chain. Optum's growth is increasingly driving the story.
Bull Case
- +Optum health services growing faster than insurance with higher margins
- +Vertical integration across payer, provider, and PBM creates cost advantages
- +Aging US population drives structural demand growth for decades
- +Strong capital allocation with consistent dividend growth and buybacks
- +Data and analytics moat from managing 50M+ lives
Bear Case
- -Regulatory and political risk — Medicare Advantage rate cuts, PBM reform
- -DOJ antitrust scrutiny of Optum's acquisitions (Change Healthcare)
- -Medical cost ratio pressure from healthcare utilization trends
- -Cyberattack risk (Change Healthcare breach precedent)
- -Valuation premium vs. peers could compress on margin pressure
Key Catalysts
- →Optum Health value-based care expansion and margin improvement
- →Medicare Advantage enrollment growth in aging population
- →Change Healthcare integration synergies and cross-selling
- →International expansion opportunities
- →AI and automation driving administrative cost reduction
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.