SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.Financial Services·Fintech / Digital Banking
Current Price
$19.46
Market Cap
$24.8B
Net Debt
-$4.9B
Shares Outstanding
1.27B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q4 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $985M | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $3.6B | $3.6B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 59.8% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 35.1% | 35.1% |
| Operating Income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net Income | -$484M | -$320M | -$301M | $499M | $481M | $481M |
| Net Margin | -49.1% | -20.4% | -14.2% | 18.6% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.00 | $-0.40 | $-0.36 | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.39 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.4B | -$7.3B | -$7.3B | -$1.3B | -$4.0B | -$4.0B |
| FCF Margin | -142.4% | -467.0% | -345.7% | -47.6% | -110.3% | -110.3% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $985M | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $3.6B |
| Growth | — | 59.8% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 35.1% |
| EBIT | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBIT Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NOPAT | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| D&A | $102M | $151M | $201M | $203M | $234M |
| CapEx | $52M | $93M | $111M | $154M | $242M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Unlevered FCF | $49M | $58M | $90M | $49M | -$8M |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$15.21
vs $19.46-21.8%
Exit Multiple
$25.89
vs $19.46+33.1%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.9B | $5.6B | $6.3B | $6.9B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $640M | $890M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $505M | $703M | $891M | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| NOPAT Margin | 11.8% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| D&A | $213M | $247M | $282M | $316M | $347M |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $171M | $198M | $226M | $253M | $278M |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $85M | $99M | $113M | $126M | $139M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $463M | $654M | $834M | $1.0B | $1.2B |
| PV of UFCF | $421M | $540M | $627M | $706M | $775M |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $421M | $961M | $1.6B | $2.3B | $3.1B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$3.1B
PV of Terminal Value$11.4B
Enterprise Value$14.5B
Less: Net Debt$4.9B
Equity Value$19.4B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$3.1B
PV of Terminal Value$25.0B
Enterprise Value$28.1B
Less: Net Debt$4.9B
Equity Value$33.0B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $17.74 | $18.83 | $20.14 | $21.74 | $23.74 |
| 9.0% | $15.61 | $16.37 | $17.26 | $18.31 | $19.57 |
| 10.0% | $14.02 | $14.58 | $15.21 | $15.95 | $16.80 |
| 11.0% | $12.78 | $13.20 | $13.68 | $14.22 | $14.83 |
| 12.0% | $11.80 | $12.13 | $12.49 | $12.90 | $13.35 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 14x | 17x | 20x | 23x | 26x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $21.48 | $24.70 | $27.93 | $31.15 | $34.38 |
| 9.0% | $20.72 | $23.80 | $26.88 | $29.96 | $33.04 |
| 10.0% | $20.01 | $22.95 | $25.89 | $28.83 | $31.78 |
| 11.0% | $19.33 | $22.14 | $24.95 | $27.77 | $30.58 |
| 12.0% | $18.69 | $21.37 | $24.06 | $26.75 | $29.44 |
Investment Thesis
SoFi is a digital bank and fintech platform targeting high-earners underserved by traditional banks. After obtaining a bank charter in 2022, it now earns net interest income on its loan portfolio alongside fee-based revenue from its financial services and technology segments (Galileo, Technisys). The company turned GAAP profitable in 2024.
Bull Case
- +Member growth compounding — 10M+ members driving cross-sell of loans, cards, invest, and banking
- +Bank charter lowering cost of funding via deposits vs. expensive warehouse lines
- +Technology platform (Galileo + Technisys) provides high-margin B2B revenue stream
- +Path to $1B+ annual net income as credit losses normalise and NIM improves
Bear Case
- -Heavy exposure to unsecured personal loans — credit quality deteriorates in a recession
- -Net interest margin compressed by high deposit rates and funding costs
- -Student loan refinancing headwinds from income-driven repayment plan changes
- -Significant share dilution from SBC and convertible debt
Key Catalysts
- →Student loan refinancing rebound as rates fall
- →Deposit growth reducing reliance on expensive wholesale funding
- →Galileo / Technisys winning new enterprise fintech clients
- →Sustained GAAP profitability improving investor sentiment
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-20.