SFM
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.Consumer Staples·Specialty Grocery Retail
Current Price
$73.87
Market Cap
$7.0B
Net Debt
-$257M
Shares Outstanding
0.10B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.5B | $6.1B | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.7B | $8.8B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 21.7% | 21.1% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 14.8% | -5.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| Operating Income | $140M | $200M | $229M | $213M | $226M | $223M | $217M | $392M | $334M | $358M | $350M | $504M | $686M |
| Operating Margin | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% |
| Net Income | $51M | $108M | $129M | $124M | $158M | $159M | $150M | $287M | $244M | $261M | $259M | $381M | $524M |
| Net Margin | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.37 | $0.70 | $0.83 | $0.83 | $1.15 | $1.22 | $1.25 | $2.43 | $2.10 | $2.39 | $2.50 | $3.75 | $5.31 |
| Free Cash Flow | $73M | $54M | $115M | $73M | $111M | $117M | $172M | $372M | $262M | $247M | $240M | $415M | $468M |
| FCF Margin | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.5B | $6.1B | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.7B | $8.8B |
| Growth | — | 21.7% | 21.1% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 14.8% | -5.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| EBIT | $140M | $200M | $229M | $213M | $226M | $223M | $217M | $392M | $334M | $358M | $350M | $504M | $686M |
| EBIT Margin | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% |
| NOPAT | $107M | $133M | $152M | $139M | $179M | $186M | $171M | $302M | $256M | $270M | $265M | $378M | $521M |
| D&A | $47M | $60M | $69M | $80M | $97M | $111M | $123M | $127M | $126M | $127M | $138M | $140M | $158M |
| CapEx | $87M | $127M | $125M | $181M | $199M | $177M | $183M | $122M | $102M | $124M | $225M | $230M | $248M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $57M | $2M | -$110M | -$5M | $24M | -$53M | -$1M | $84M | $97M | -$95M | -$61M | -$56M |
| Unlevered FCF | $67M | $9M | $94M | $148M | $82M | $95M | $163M | $308M | $195M | $176M | $272M | $350M | $487M |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$103.17
vs $73.87+39.7%
Exit Multiple
$164.66
vs $73.87+122.9%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.9B | $10.8B | $11.8B | $12.8B | $13.7B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $789M | $922M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $596M | $696M | $804M | $868M | $929M |
| NOPAT Margin | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| D&A | $178M | $195M | $213M | $230M | $246M |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $276M | $304M | $331M | $358M | $383M |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $49M | $54M | $59M | $64M | $68M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $448M | $533M | $626M | $676M | $724M |
| PV of UFCF | $409M | $445M | $477M | $470M | $460M |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $409M | $854M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.3B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$2.3B
PV of Terminal Value$7.3B
Enterprise Value$9.5B
Less: Net Debt$257M
Equity Value$9.8B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$2.3B
PV of Terminal Value$13.1B
Enterprise Value$15.4B
Less: Net Debt$257M
Equity Value$15.6B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $126.28 | $136.65 | $149.33 | $165.17 | $185.54 |
| 8.5% | $106.67 | $113.72 | $122.04 | $132.04 | $144.25 |
| 9.5% | $92.30 | $97.35 | $103.17 | $109.96 | $117.99 |
| 10.5% | $81.33 | $85.09 | $89.35 | $94.21 | $99.83 |
| 11.5% | $72.68 | $75.56 | $78.79 | $82.41 | $86.52 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 8x | 11x | 14x | 17x | 20x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $114.46 | $146.93 | $179.39 | $211.85 | $244.32 |
| 8.5% | $109.84 | $140.83 | $171.83 | $202.82 | $233.82 |
| 9.5% | $105.45 | $135.06 | $164.66 | $194.27 | $223.87 |
| 10.5% | $101.29 | $129.58 | $157.87 | $186.16 | $214.45 |
| 11.5% | $97.35 | $124.39 | $151.43 | $178.48 | $205.52 |
Investment Thesis
Specialty grocer riding the secular health & wellness trend with accelerating store growth, margin expansion from scale, and a differentiated smaller-format model. Debt-free balance sheet. Trading at ~14x earnings with double-digit revenue growth.
Bull Case
- +Store count doubling opportunity (430+ today to 800+) with proven unit economics
- +Operating margin runway from 7.8% toward 10%+ as scale and private label grow
- +Debt-free balance sheet enables aggressive expansion and share buybacks
- +Secular health and wellness mega-trend driving demand for natural/organic grocery
Bear Case
- -Grocery is highly competitive with thin margins — Whole Foods (Amazon), Trader Joe's overlap significantly
- -Economic slowdown pushes consumers to discount grocers, away from premium organic
- -Labor cost inflation and supply chain disruptions compress grocery margins
- -New store openings cannibalize existing store comps in overlapping markets
Key Catalysts
- →Accelerating new store openings to 35-40 per year
- →Private label penetration increasing, improving margins
- →Continued share buyback program reducing share count
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-03-02.