NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationTechnology·Semiconductors
Current Price
$186.81
Market Cap
$4.54T
Net Debt
-$1.1B
Shares Outstanding
24.30B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM (Q3 FY2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $6.9B | $9.7B | $11.7B | $10.9B | $16.7B | $26.9B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $130.5B | $215.9B | $182.8B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 12.8% | 7.1% | -3.5% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 37.9% | 40.6% | 20.6% | -6.8% | 52.7% | 61.4% | 0.2% | 125.9% | 114.2% | 65.5% | 132.0% |
| Operating Income | $256M | $648M | $648M | $496M | $759M | $747M | $1.9B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $2.8B | $4.5B | $10.0B | $4.2B | $33.0B | $81.5B | $130.4B | $119.5B |
| Operating Margin | 7.2% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 28.0% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 37.3% | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% | 65.4% |
| Net Income | $253M | $581M | $563M | $440M | $631M | $614M | $1.7B | $3.0B | $4.1B | $2.8B | $4.3B | $9.8B | $4.4B | $29.8B | $72.9B | $120.1B | $106.2B |
| Net Margin | 7.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 24.1% | 31.4% | 35.3% | 25.6% | 26.0% | 36.2% | 16.2% | 48.8% | 55.8% | 55.6% | 58.1% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.06 | $0.12 | $0.17 | $0.11 | $0.17 | $0.39 | $0.17 | $1.19 | $2.94 | $4.90 | $3.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | $0 | $770M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $27.0B | $60.9B | $96.7B | $90.4B |
| FCF Margin | 0.0% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 46.6% | 44.8% | 49.4% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.5B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $6.9B | $9.7B | $11.7B | $10.9B | $16.7B | $26.9B | $27.0B | $60.9B | $130.5B | $215.9B |
| Growth | — | 12.8% | 7.1% | -3.5% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 37.9% | 40.6% | 20.6% | -6.8% | 52.7% | 61.4% | 0.2% | 125.9% | 114.2% | 65.5% |
| EBIT | $256M | $648M | $648M | $496M | $759M | $747M | $1.9B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $2.8B | $4.5B | $10.0B | $4.2B | $33.0B | $81.5B | $130.4B |
| EBIT Margin | 7.2% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 28.0% | 33.0% | 32.5% | 26.1% | 27.2% | 37.3% | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% |
| NOPAT | $238M | $566M | $549M | $426M | $635M | $618M | $1.7B | $3.1B | $3.8B | $2.7B | $4.5B | $9.9B | $4.2B | $28.9B | $70.3B | $109.0B |
| D&A | $187M | $204M | $226M | $239M | $220M | $197M | $187M | $199M | $262M | $381M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.8B |
| CapEx | $0 | $139M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.1B | $3.2B | $6.0B |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $691M | $824M | $880M | $138M | -$1.1B | $3.0B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $2.7B | $224M | $12.4B | -$8.0B | $17.2B | $28.4B | $31.4B |
| Unlevered FCF | $425M | -$60M | -$49M | -$215M | $717M | $1.9B | -$1.2B | $1.9B | $2.9B | $375M | $5.3B | -$1.3B | $13.8B | $12.1B | $40.6B | $74.4B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$91.77
vs $186.81-50.9%
Exit Multiple
$164.16
vs $186.81-12.1%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $269.9B | $323.9B | $372.5B | $417.2B | $458.9B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $162.0B | $187.9B | $208.6B | $229.5B | $247.8B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $142.5B | $165.3B | $183.6B | $201.9B | $218.1B |
| NOPAT Margin | 52.8% | 51.0% | 49.3% | 48.4% | 47.5% |
| D&A | $5.4B | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.2B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $5.4B | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.2B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $5.4B | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.2B |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $137.1B | $158.8B | $176.1B | $193.6B | $208.9B |
| PV of UFCF | $123.5B | $128.9B | $128.8B | $127.5B | $124.0B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $123.5B | $252.5B | $381.2B | $508.7B | $632.7B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$632.7B
PV of Terminal Value$1.60T
Enterprise Value$2.23T
Less: Net Debt$1.1B
Equity Value$2.23T
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$632.7B
PV of Terminal Value$3.36T
Enterprise Value$3.99T
Less: Net Debt$1.1B
Equity Value$3.99T
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $108.97 | $115.66 | $123.47 | $132.69 | $143.77 |
| 10.0% | $94.86 | $99.75 | $105.34 | $111.80 | $119.32 |
| 11.0% | $83.90 | $87.60 | $91.77 | $96.49 | $101.88 |
| 12.0% | $75.15 | $78.03 | $81.22 | $84.79 | $88.81 |
| 13.0% | $68.00 | $70.28 | $72.79 | $75.57 | $78.65 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 16x | 19x | 22x | 25x | 28x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $137.53 | $158.15 | $178.77 | $199.39 | $220.01 |
| 10.0% | $131.87 | $151.57 | $171.27 | $190.97 | $210.67 |
| 11.0% | $126.50 | $145.33 | $164.16 | $182.99 | $201.82 |
| 12.0% | $121.41 | $139.41 | $157.42 | $175.42 | $193.42 |
| 13.0% | $116.58 | $133.80 | $151.02 | $168.24 | $185.46 |
Investment Thesis
NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in AI accelerated computing, with 80%+ market share in data center GPUs for AI training and inference. The explosive growth in AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprises has driven unprecedented revenue growth. The key question is the sustainability of this spending cycle and whether competition from AMD, custom ASICs, and in-house chips will erode margins.
Bull Case
- +AI infrastructure spending still early innings — enterprise adoption just beginning
- +Blackwell architecture extending performance lead over competition
- +CUDA software ecosystem creates massive switching costs
- +Expanding TAM: inference, sovereign AI, edge AI, robotics
- +Networking (Mellanox/InfiniBand) adds to data center wallet share
Bear Case
- -AI capex cycle could slow or pause as hyperscalers digest capacity
- -AMD, Intel, and custom ASICs (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium) gaining share
- -Gross margins could compress from 70%+ as competition intensifies
- -China export restrictions limit addressable market
- -Premium valuation leaves no room for execution missteps
Key Catalysts
- →Blackwell GPU ramp and next-gen Rubin architecture
- →Enterprise AI adoption acceleration beyond hyperscalers
- →Inference workload growth driving recurring demand
- →Automotive and robotics platform (DRIVE, Isaac) revenue ramp
- →Sovereign AI initiatives driving government spending on GPU infrastructure
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.