NFLX
Netflix, Inc.Communication Services·Entertainment
Current Price
$83.74
Market Cap
$353.6B
Net Debt
$5.4B
Shares Outstanding
4.22B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q4 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $2.2B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $5.5B | $6.8B | $8.8B | $11.7B | $15.8B | $20.2B | $25.0B | $29.7B | $31.6B | $33.7B | $39.0B | $45.2B | $45.2B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 29.5% | 48.2% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 30.3% | 32.4% | 35.1% | 27.6% | 24.0% | 18.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Operating Income | $192M | $284M | $376M | $50M | $228M | $403M | $306M | $380M | $839M | $1.6B | $2.6B | $4.6B | $6.2B | $5.6B | $7.0B | $10.4B | $13.3B | $13.3B |
| Operating Margin | 11.5% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.3% | 20.9% | 17.8% | 20.6% | 26.7% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Net Income | $116M | $161M | $226M | $17M | $112M | $267M | $123M | $187M | $559M | $1.2B | $1.9B | $2.8B | $5.1B | $4.5B | $5.4B | $8.7B | $11.0B | $11.0B |
| Net Margin | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 22.3% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.06 | $0.00 | $0.03 | $0.06 | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.13 | $0.27 | $0.41 | $0.61 | $1.12 | $0.99 | $1.20 | $1.98 | $2.53 | $2.53 |
| Free Cash Flow | $279M | $243M | $268M | -$19M | $44M | -$53M | -$841M | -$1.6B | -$2.0B | -$2.9B | -$3.1B | $1.9B | -$132M | $1.6B | $6.9B | $6.9B | $9.5B | $9.5B |
| FCF Margin | 16.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | -0.5% | 1.0% | -1.0% | -12.4% | -17.9% | -16.8% | -18.1% | -15.6% | 7.7% | -0.4% | 5.1% | 20.5% | 17.7% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $2.2B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $5.5B | $6.8B | $8.8B | $11.7B | $15.8B | $20.2B | $25.0B | $29.7B | $31.6B | $33.7B | $39.0B | $45.2B |
| Growth | — | 29.5% | 48.2% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 30.3% | 32.4% | 35.1% | 27.6% | 24.0% | 18.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 15.9% |
| EBIT | $192M | $284M | $376M | $50M | $228M | $403M | $306M | $380M | $839M | $1.6B | $2.6B | $4.6B | $6.2B | $5.6B | $7.0B | $10.4B | $13.3B |
| EBIT Margin | 11.5% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.3% | 20.9% | 17.8% | 20.6% | 26.7% | 29.5% |
| NOPAT | $116M | $177M | $243M | $37M | $170M | $320M | $287M | $306M | $839M | $1.6B | $2.4B | $4.1B | $5.5B | $4.9B | $6.2B | $9.2B | $11.6B |
| D&A | $38M | $38M | $44M | $45M | $48M | $54M | $62M | $58M | $72M | $83M | $104M | $116M | $208M | $337M | $357M | $329M | $333M |
| CapEx | $46M | $34M | $50M | $41M | $54M | $70M | $91M | $108M | $173M | $174M | $253M | $498M | $525M | $408M | $349M | $440M | $688M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $68M | $353M | -$41M | $340M | $373M | $625M | -$769M | $1.1B | $1.0B | -$3.9B | $2.6B | -$2.4B | $1.8B | -$278M | $1.3B | -$306M |
| Unlevered FCF | $108M | $113M | -$117M | $82M | -$176M | -$68M | -$367M | $1.0B | -$333M | $496M | $6.1B | $1.1B | $7.5B | $3.0B | $6.4B | $7.8B | $11.5B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$53.91
vs $83.74-35.6%
Exit Multiple
$87.79
vs $83.74+4.8%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $51.1B | $56.7B | $62.3B | $68.0B | $73.4B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $14.3B | $16.4B | $18.7B | $21.1B | $23.5B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $11.7B | $13.5B | $15.3B | $17.3B | $19.3B |
| NOPAT Margin | 23.0% | 23.8% | 24.6% | 25.4% | 26.2% |
| D&A | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $511M | $567M | $623M | $680M | $734M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $11.7B | $13.5B | $15.3B | $17.3B | $19.3B |
| PV of UFCF | $10.7B | $11.1B | $11.5B | $11.8B | $12.0B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $10.7B | $21.8B | $33.3B | $45.1B | $57.1B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$57.1B
PV of Terminal Value$175.9B
Enterprise Value$233.0B
Less: Net Debt-$5.4B
Equity Value$227.6B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$57.1B
PV of Terminal Value$319.0B
Enterprise Value$376.0B
Less: Net Debt-$5.4B
Equity Value$370.6B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $65.79 | $70.87 | $76.97 | $84.42 | $93.73 |
| 9.0% | $55.82 | $59.37 | $63.51 | $68.41 | $74.28 |
| 10.0% | $48.35 | $50.94 | $53.91 | $57.33 | $61.33 |
| 11.0% | $42.55 | $44.51 | $46.72 | $49.22 | $52.09 |
| 12.0% | $37.92 | $39.44 | $41.14 | $43.03 | $45.16 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 14x | 17x | 20x | 23x | 26x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $70.99 | $83.41 | $95.83 | $108.25 | $120.68 |
| 9.0% | $67.98 | $79.84 | $91.70 | $103.56 | $115.43 |
| 10.0% | $65.12 | $76.46 | $87.79 | $99.12 | $110.45 |
| 11.0% | $62.42 | $73.25 | $84.08 | $94.91 | $105.74 |
| 12.0% | $59.85 | $70.20 | $80.56 | $90.92 | $101.27 |
Investment Thesis
Netflix is the dominant global streaming platform with best-in-class content spending efficiency and a growing ad-supported tier. After years of heavy content investment, the company is now generating strong free cash flow and expanding margins. Key growth drivers include the ad tier, password-sharing crackdown monetization, and pricing power.
Bull Case
- +Ad-supported tier driving incremental revenue with high margins
- +Password-sharing crackdown converting freeloaders into paid subs
- +Best content library with $17B+ annual content spend creating a wide moat
- +Pricing power demonstrated across multiple markets
- +Live events (sports, comedy) expanding TAM and engagement
Bear Case
- -Subscriber growth slowing in mature markets (US, Canada, Europe)
- -Increasing competition from Disney+, Amazon, Apple TV+, YouTube
- -Content costs remain high and hits are unpredictable
- -Ad tier may cannibalize premium subscriptions
- -Regulatory risks in international markets
Key Catalysts
- →Continued ad tier revenue ramp and advertiser demand
- →Live sports expansion (WWE Raw, NFL Christmas games)
- →Gaming platform growth and engagement
- →Further price increases across all tiers
- →Operating margin expansion toward 30%+ targets
Follow the journey
Portfolio updates, new company analyses, and lessons from building a one-person investing business.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.