META
Meta Platforms, Inc.Communication Services·Social Media & Advertising
Current Price
$652.04
Market Cap
$1.68T
Net Debt
-$22.8B
Shares Outstanding
2.57B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q4 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $7.9B | $12.5B | $17.9B | $27.6B | $40.7B | $55.8B | $70.7B | $86.0B | $117.9B | $116.6B | $134.9B | $164.5B | $201.0B | $201.0B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 54.7% | 58.4% | 43.8% | 54.2% | 47.1% | 37.4% | 26.6% | 21.6% | 37.2% | -1.1% | 15.7% | 21.9% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Operating Income | $538M | $2.8B | $5.0B | $6.2B | $12.4B | $20.2B | $24.9B | $24.0B | $32.7B | $46.8B | $28.9B | $46.8B | $69.4B | $83.3B | $83.3B |
| Operating Margin | 10.6% | 35.6% | 40.1% | 34.7% | 45.0% | 49.7% | 44.6% | 33.9% | 38.0% | 39.6% | 24.8% | 34.7% | 42.2% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| Net Income | $53M | $1.5B | $2.9B | $3.7B | $10.2B | $15.9B | $22.1B | $18.5B | $29.1B | $39.4B | $23.2B | $39.1B | $62.4B | $60.5B | $60.5B |
| Net Margin | 1.0% | 19.1% | 23.6% | 20.6% | 37.0% | 39.2% | 39.6% | 26.1% | 33.9% | 33.4% | 19.9% | 29.0% | 37.9% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.01 | $0.60 | $1.10 | $1.29 | $3.49 | $5.39 | $7.57 | $6.43 | $10.09 | $13.77 | $8.59 | $14.87 | $23.86 | $23.49 | $23.49 |
| Free Cash Flow | $377M | $2.9B | $3.6B | $6.1B | $11.6B | $17.5B | $15.4B | $21.2B | $23.6B | $39.1B | $19.0B | $43.8B | $54.1B | $46.1B | $46.1B |
| FCF Margin | 7.4% | 36.3% | 29.1% | 33.9% | 42.0% | 43.0% | 27.5% | 30.0% | 27.5% | 33.2% | 16.3% | 32.5% | 32.9% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $7.9B | $12.5B | $17.9B | $27.6B | $40.7B | $55.8B | $70.7B | $86.0B | $117.9B | $116.6B | $134.9B | $164.5B | $201.0B |
| Growth | — | 54.7% | 58.4% | 43.8% | 54.2% | 47.1% | 37.4% | 26.6% | 21.6% | 37.2% | -1.1% | 15.7% | 21.9% | 22.2% |
| EBIT | $538M | $2.8B | $5.0B | $6.2B | $12.4B | $20.2B | $24.9B | $24.0B | $32.7B | $46.8B | $28.9B | $46.8B | $69.4B | $83.3B |
| EBIT Margin | 10.6% | 35.6% | 40.1% | 34.7% | 45.0% | 49.7% | 44.6% | 33.9% | 38.0% | 39.6% | 24.8% | 34.7% | 42.2% | 41.4% |
| NOPAT | $269M | $1.6B | $3.0B | $3.7B | $10.1B | $15.5B | $21.7B | $17.7B | $28.6B | $38.8B | $23.3B | $38.4B | $61.1B | $57.8B |
| D&A | $649M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $3.0B | $4.3B | $5.7B | $6.9B | $8.0B | $8.7B | $11.2B | $15.5B | $18.6B |
| CapEx | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.5B | $4.5B | $6.7B | $13.9B | $15.1B | $15.1B | $18.6B | $31.4B | $27.3B | $37.3B | $69.7B |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $1.8B | $276M | $7.5B | $11.8B | $13.3B | -$1.3B | $7.7B | $9.5B | -$15.2B | -$13.0B | $20.9B | $13.0B | $437M |
| Unlevered FCF | -$317M | -$556M | $2.2B | -$4.3B | -$3.8B | -$1.4B | $13.4B | $589M | $10.9B | $43.4B | $13.6B | $1.5B | $26.3B | $6.3B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$399.55
vs $652.04-38.7%
Exit Multiple
$837.39
vs $652.04+28.4%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $229.1B | $256.6B | $282.3B | $307.7B | $332.3B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $87.1B | $97.5B | $110.1B | $120.0B | $132.9B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $74.9B | $83.9B | $94.7B | $103.2B | $114.3B |
| NOPAT Margin | 32.7% | 32.7% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| D&A | $13.7B | $15.4B | $16.9B | $18.5B | $19.9B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $41.2B | $43.6B | $45.2B | $46.1B | $46.5B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.3B |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $45.1B | $53.1B | $63.6B | $72.4B | $84.4B |
| PV of UFCF | $41.0B | $43.9B | $47.8B | $49.5B | $52.4B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $41.0B | $84.8B | $132.6B | $182.1B | $234.5B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$234.5B
PV of Terminal Value$771.1B
Enterprise Value$1.01T
Less: Net Debt$22.8B
Equity Value$1.03T
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$234.5B
PV of Terminal Value$1.90T
Enterprise Value$2.13T
Less: Net Debt$22.8B
Equity Value$2.16T
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $484.74 | $521.25 | $565.07 | $618.63 | $685.57 |
| 9.0% | $413.14 | $438.67 | $468.45 | $503.64 | $545.87 |
| 10.0% | $359.56 | $378.22 | $399.55 | $424.16 | $452.87 |
| 11.0% | $317.98 | $332.09 | $347.98 | $365.97 | $386.54 |
| 12.0% | $284.80 | $295.76 | $307.95 | $321.57 | $336.89 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 14x | 17x | 20x | 23x | 26x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $671.16 | $792.40 | $913.64 | $1034.88 | $1156.12 |
| 9.0% | $642.92 | $758.70 | $874.48 | $990.26 | $1106.04 |
| 10.0% | $616.16 | $726.78 | $837.39 | $948.00 | $1058.61 |
| 11.0% | $590.80 | $696.52 | $802.23 | $907.95 | $1013.67 |
| 12.0% | $566.74 | $667.82 | $768.90 | $869.98 | $971.06 |
Investment Thesis
Meta is the dominant digital advertising platform globally, with unmatched reach across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. AI-driven ad targeting improvements are driving strong revenue growth and advertiser ROI. The key debate is whether massive capex on AI infrastructure and Reality Labs losses will translate into long-term value creation.
Bull Case
- +AI-powered ad recommendations driving higher engagement and monetization
- +Reels monetization closing the gap with feed ads
- +WhatsApp and Messenger business messaging as new revenue streams
- +Massive buyback program reducing share count 3-4% annually
- +Reality Labs optionality — AR/VR platform leadership if metaverse materializes
Bear Case
- -Reality Labs burning $15B+/year with unclear path to profitability
- -Capex surge ($35B+) on AI infrastructure with uncertain returns
- -Regulatory risks: antitrust, data privacy (EU DMA, US legislation)
- -TikTok competition for younger demographics and ad dollars
- -Dependence on advertising makes revenue cyclical
Key Catalysts
- →AI monetization through Meta AI assistant and business tools
- →Reels ad load and pricing parity with feed
- →WhatsApp business API and click-to-message ads scaling
- →Reality Labs hardware refresh (Quest, Ray-Ban Meta glasses)
- →Operating efficiency gains from Year of Efficiency initiatives
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.