MA
Mastercard IncorporatedFinancials·Payment Processing
Current Price
$515.94
Market Cap
$467.4B
Net Debt
$7.7B
Shares Outstanding
0.91B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q4 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $5.5B | $6.7B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.5B | $9.7B | $10.8B | $12.5B | $14.9B | $16.9B | $15.3B | $18.9B | $22.2B | $25.1B | $28.2B | $32.8B | $32.8B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 8.6% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 12.9% | -9.4% | 23.4% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| Operating Income | $2.3B | $2.8B | $2.7B | $3.9B | $4.5B | $5.1B | $5.1B | $5.8B | $6.6B | $7.3B | $9.7B | $8.1B | $10.1B | $12.3B | $14.0B | $15.6B | $18.9B | $18.9B |
| Operating Margin | 44.3% | 49.7% | 40.4% | 53.3% | 54.0% | 53.9% | 52.5% | 53.5% | 53.0% | 48.7% | 57.2% | 52.8% | 53.4% | 55.2% | 55.8% | 55.3% | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Net Income | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $3.9B | $5.9B | $8.1B | $6.4B | $8.7B | $9.9B | $11.2B | $12.9B | $15.0B | $15.0B |
| Net Margin | 28.7% | 33.3% | 28.4% | 37.3% | 37.3% | 38.2% | 39.4% | 37.7% | 31.3% | 39.2% | 48.1% | 41.9% | 46.0% | 44.7% | 44.6% | 45.7% | 45.6% | 45.6% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.12 | $1.41 | $1.49 | $2.19 | $2.56 | $3.10 | $3.35 | $3.69 | $3.65 | $5.60 | $7.94 | $6.37 | $8.76 | $10.22 | $11.83 | $13.89 | $16.52 | $16.52 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $4.0B | $3.2B | $3.9B | $4.3B | $5.3B | $5.9B | $7.8B | $6.9B | $9.1B | $10.8B | $11.6B | $14.3B | $17.2B | $17.2B |
| FCF Margin | 25.9% | 29.5% | 38.8% | 38.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 42.1% | 39.4% | 46.0% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 48.4% | 46.3% | 50.8% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $5.5B | $6.7B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.5B | $9.7B | $10.8B | $12.5B | $14.9B | $16.9B | $15.3B | $18.9B | $22.2B | $25.1B | $28.2B | $32.8B |
| Growth | — | 8.6% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 12.9% | -9.4% | 23.4% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 16.4% |
| EBIT | $2.3B | $2.8B | $2.7B | $3.9B | $4.5B | $5.1B | $5.1B | $5.8B | $6.6B | $7.3B | $9.7B | $8.1B | $10.1B | $12.3B | $14.0B | $15.6B | $18.9B |
| EBIT Margin | 44.3% | 49.7% | 40.4% | 53.3% | 54.0% | 53.9% | 52.5% | 53.5% | 53.0% | 48.7% | 57.2% | 52.8% | 53.4% | 55.2% | 55.8% | 55.3% | 57.6% |
| NOPAT | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.0B | $5.9B | $8.1B | $6.7B | $8.5B | $10.5B | $11.6B | $13.2B | $15.3B |
| D&A | $141M | $148M | $194M | $230M | $258M | $321M | $366M | $373M | $436M | $459M | $522M | $580M | $726M | $750M | $799M | $897M | $1.1B |
| CapEx | $57M | $61M | $77M | $96M | $155M | $175M | $177M | $215M | $300M | $330M | $422M | $339M | $407M | $442M | $371M | $474M | $489M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $1.5B | $213M | $927M | $467M | -$143M | -$59M | $1.3B | -$1.0B | -$426M | $420M | $2.3B | -$3.5B | -$1.4B | $262M | -$2.2B | $292M |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.6B | $454M | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.8B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $3.0B | $5.2B | $6.5B | $7.7B | $4.7B | $12.3B | $12.1B | $11.7B | $15.8B | $15.6B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$362.48
vs $515.94-29.7%
Exit Multiple
$618.60
vs $515.94+19.9%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.4B | $40.0B | $43.6B | $47.1B | $50.4B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $20.7B | $22.8B | $25.3B | $27.3B | $29.3B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $17.2B | $18.9B | $21.0B | $22.7B | $24.3B |
| NOPAT Margin | 47.3% | 47.3% | 48.1% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| D&A | $728M | $801M | $873M | $943M | $1.0B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $364M | $400M | $436M | $471M | $504M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $16.5B | $18.1B | $20.1B | $21.7B | $23.3B |
| PV of UFCF | $15.1B | $15.3B | $15.5B | $15.4B | $15.1B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $15.1B | $30.4B | $45.9B | $61.4B | $76.5B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$76.5B
PV of Terminal Value$259.6B
Enterprise Value$336.1B
Less: Net Debt-$7.7B
Equity Value$328.4B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$76.5B
PV of Terminal Value$491.7B
Enterprise Value$568.1B
Less: Net Debt-$7.7B
Equity Value$560.5B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $454.35 | $497.89 | $552.32 | $622.30 | $715.60 |
| 8.0% | $375.46 | $404.06 | $438.39 | $480.34 | $532.78 |
| 9.0% | $319.16 | $339.16 | $362.48 | $390.05 | $423.13 |
| 10.0% | $276.98 | $291.60 | $308.31 | $327.59 | $350.08 |
| 11.0% | $244.21 | $255.27 | $267.71 | $281.81 | $297.92 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 19x | 22x | 25x | 28x | 31x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $533.23 | $604.66 | $676.10 | $747.54 | $818.98 |
| 8.0% | $510.18 | $578.38 | $646.57 | $714.76 | $782.95 |
| 9.0% | $488.36 | $553.48 | $618.60 | $683.72 | $748.84 |
| 10.0% | $467.67 | $529.89 | $592.10 | $654.31 | $716.53 |
| 11.0% | $448.06 | $507.52 | $566.98 | $626.44 | $685.91 |
Investment Thesis
Mastercard is a dominant global payment network benefiting from the secular shift from cash to digital payments. Asset-light business model with exceptional margins and returns on capital. Growth driven by cross-border volumes, value-added services, and new payment flows (B2B, real-time).
Bull Case
- +Secular cash-to-digital conversion still in early innings globally
- +Cross-border travel recovery and e-commerce driving premium fees
- +Value-added services (analytics, fraud, consulting) growing faster than core
- +B2B payments and new payment flows represent massive untapped TAM
Bear Case
- -Regulatory risk — interchange fee caps and antitrust scrutiny
- -Real-time payment rails (FedNow, UPI, Pix) bypassing card networks
- -Fintech disruption and account-to-account payment alternatives
- -High valuation assumes sustained double-digit growth
Key Catalysts
- →Expansion in emerging markets (India, Africa, Southeast Asia)
- →New partnership deals with fintechs and digital wallets
- →Share repurchase program reducing share count ~2% annually
- →B2B payment solutions gaining enterprise traction
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.