HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.Financial Services·Capital Markets
Current Price
$78.38
Market Cap
$72.0B
Net Debt
$7.4B
Shares Outstanding
0.92B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q4 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $3.0B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| Revenue Growth | — | -25.2% | 37.3% | 58.2% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Operating Income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2.1B |
| Operating Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.8% |
| Net Income | -$3.7B | -$1.0B | -$541M | $1.4B | $1.9B | $1.9B |
| Net Margin | -203.1% | -75.7% | -29.0% | 47.8% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-7.49 | $-1.17 | $-0.61 | $1.56 | $2.05 | $2.05 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$948M | -$880M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.6B |
| FCF Margin | -52.2% | -64.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.6% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $3.0B | $4.5B |
| Growth | — | -25.2% | 37.3% | 58.2% | 51.6% |
| EBIT | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBIT Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NOPAT | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| D&A | $25M | $61M | $71M | $77M | $86M |
| CapEx | $63M | $28M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| ΔNWC | $0 | -$272M | -$419M | $754M | $535M |
| Unlevered FCF | -$38M | $305M | $490M | -$677M | -$449M |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$26.60
vs $78.38-66.1%
Exit Multiple
$53.83
vs $78.38-31.3%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.6B | $6.7B | $7.7B | $8.6B | $9.5B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.6B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.9B |
| NOPAT Margin | 39.9% | 39.9% | 40.8% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| D&A | $112M | $134M | $154M | $173M | $190M |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $28M | $34M | $39M | $43M | $48M |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $112M | $134M | $154M | $173M | $190M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.8B |
| PV of UFCF | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $2.0B | $4.0B | $6.2B | $8.3B | $10.4B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$10.4B
PV of Terminal Value$21.4B
Enterprise Value$31.8B
Less: Net Debt-$7.4B
Equity Value$24.4B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$10.4B
PV of Terminal Value$46.4B
Enterprise Value$56.8B
Less: Net Debt-$7.4B
Equity Value$49.5B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | $31.97 | $33.76 | $35.78 | $38.07 | $40.68 |
| 12.0% | $27.73 | $29.13 | $30.68 | $32.41 | $34.36 |
| 13.0% | $24.28 | $25.38 | $26.60 | $27.95 | $29.44 |
| 14.0% | $21.40 | $22.30 | $23.27 | $24.34 | $25.52 |
| 15.0% | $18.98 | $19.71 | $20.50 | $21.37 | $22.31 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 12x | 15x | 18x | 21x | 24x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | $40.76 | $49.97 | $59.18 | $68.39 | $77.59 |
| 12.0% | $38.82 | $47.63 | $56.43 | $65.24 | $74.04 |
| 13.0% | $36.98 | $45.40 | $53.83 | $62.25 | $70.67 |
| 14.0% | $35.23 | $43.29 | $51.35 | $59.41 | $67.47 |
| 15.0% | $33.57 | $41.29 | $49.00 | $56.71 | $64.43 |
Investment Thesis
Robinhood has transformed from a money-losing meme-stock darling into a profitable, high-growth fintech platform. Revenue surged 52% in FY2025 to $4.5B driven by crypto trading, options, and its Gold subscription product. Operating margins hit 47%, demonstrating strong operating leverage in its asset-light model. The key question is whether this growth is sustainable or peak-cycle driven.
Bull Case
- +Crypto and options trading volumes driving transaction-based revenue growth with strong margins
- +Gold subscription (~$5/mo) and margin lending creating recurring, less market-sensitive revenue
- +International expansion (UK launch, EU roadmap) opens new TAM
- +Operating leverage: 47% operating margin up from negative shows platform scalability
- +Share buyback program ($1B+ authorized) returning cash to shareholders as SBC normalizes
Bear Case
- -PFOF regulatory risk could eliminate a significant transaction revenue source
- -Highly market-sensitive revenue: trading volumes correlate with market volatility and retail sentiment
- -Intense competition from Schwab, Fidelity, Interactive Brokers with deeper product suites
- -Crypto regulatory uncertainty could impact trading volumes and new product launches
- -Historical SBC dilution ($1.6B in FY2021 alone) and still-negative retained earnings
Key Catalysts
- →Credit card and banking product expansion driving deposits and recurring revenue
- →Futures and index options trading launches expanding TAM
- →Crypto regulatory clarity enabling new token listings and products
- →International market expansion beyond UK
- →Continued margin expansion as SBC normalizes below 10% of revenue
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-24.