GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.Communication Services·Internet Content & Information
Current Price
$338.25
Market Cap
$4.09T
Net Debt
$18.4B
Shares Outstanding
12.09B
Financial Summary
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $257.6B | $282.8B | $307.4B | $350.0B | $402.8B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 9.8% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 15.1% |
| Operating Income | $78.7B | $74.8B | $84.3B | $112.4B | $129.0B |
| Operating Margin | 30.6% | 26.5% | 27.4% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| Net Income | $76.0B | $60.0B | $73.8B | $100.1B | $132.2B |
| Net Margin | 29.5% | 21.2% | 24.0% | 28.6% | 32.8% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.91 | $4.56 | $5.80 | $8.04 | $10.81 |
| Free Cash Flow | $67.0B | $60.0B | $69.5B | $72.8B | $73.3B |
| FCF Margin | 26.0% | 21.2% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 18.2% |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$152.71
vs $338.25-54.9%
Exit Multiple
$284.47
vs $338.25-15.9%
Revenue Growth (Y1-Y5)
%
%
%
%
%
EBIT Margin (Y1-Y5)
%
%
%
%
%
Operating Assumptions
%
D&A % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
%
%
%
%
%
CapEx % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
%
%
%
%
%
NWC % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
%
%
%
%
%
Discount Rate
%
Terminal Value
%
x
Capital Structure
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $455.2B | $509.8B | $560.8B | $611.3B | $660.2B |
| Growth | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| EBIT | $150.2B | $168.2B | $190.7B | $207.8B | $231.1B |
| EBIT Margin | 33.0% | 33.0% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 35.0% |
| NOPAT | $127.7B | $143.0B | $162.1B | $176.7B | $196.4B |
| D&A | $27.3B | $30.6B | $33.6B | $36.7B | $39.6B |
| CapEx | $68.3B | $71.4B | $72.9B | $73.4B | $72.6B |
| ΔNWC | $4.6B | $5.1B | $5.6B | $6.1B | $6.6B |
| Unlevered FCF | $82.2B | $97.1B | $117.2B | $133.9B | $156.8B |
| PV of FCF | $74.7B | $80.3B | $88.1B | $91.4B | $97.4B |
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$431.8B
PV of Terminal Value$1.43T
Enterprise Value$1.86T
Less: Net Debt$-18.4B
Equity Value$1.85T
Exit Multiple Method
PV of FCFs$431.8B
PV of Terminal Value$3.03T
Enterprise Value$3.46T
Less: Net Debt$-18.4B
Equity Value$3.44T
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $186.40 | $200.85 | $218.18 | $239.37 | $265.85 |
| 9.0% | $158.08 | $168.18 | $179.96 | $193.88 | $210.59 |
| 10.0% | $136.89 | $144.27 | $152.71 | $162.45 | $173.81 |
| 11.0% | $120.45 | $126.03 | $132.32 | $139.44 | $147.57 |
| 12.0% | $107.33 | $111.67 | $116.49 | $121.87 | $127.94 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 12x | 15x | 18x | 21x | 24x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $219.20 | $264.92 | $310.64 | $356.36 | $402.08 |
| 9.0% | $209.88 | $253.54 | $297.20 | $340.86 | $384.52 |
| 10.0% | $201.05 | $242.76 | $284.47 | $326.18 | $367.89 |
| 11.0% | $192.67 | $232.54 | $272.40 | $312.27 | $352.14 |
| 12.0% | $184.73 | $222.84 | $260.96 | $299.08 | $337.20 |
Investment Thesis
Alphabet is the dominant digital advertising platform with Google Search and YouTube, complemented by a rapidly growing Google Cloud business. Operating margins rebounded sharply from 27% (FY2022) to 32% (FY2024) driven by efficiency improvements and AI monetization.
Bull Case
- +Google Cloud reaching profitability inflection with 25%+ growth
- +AI integration strengthening Search moat and monetization
- +YouTube advertising and subscription revenue growing 15%+
- +Waymo autonomous driving optionality
- +Share buybacks accelerating ($70B+ program)
Bear Case
- -AI search disruption from ChatGPT/Perplexity/Apple
- -Antitrust remedies could force structural changes
- -Massive AI CapEx ($50B+) may not generate adequate returns
- -Advertising cyclicality in economic downturn
- -Cloud competition from AWS and Azure intensifying
Key Catalysts
- →Google Cloud growth trajectory and margin expansion
- →Gemini AI model adoption and developer ecosystem
- →Antitrust trial outcomes and remedies
- →YouTube monetization improvements
- →CapEx normalization timeline
Join the newsletter
Get insights on life's decisions, wisdom, and building your financial engine. Delivered to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-09.