FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.Technology·Cybersecurity
Current Price
$79.51
Market Cap
$58.8B
Net Debt
-$2.0B
Shares Outstanding
0.74B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM (Q3 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $534M | $615M | $770M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.4B | $5.3B | $6.0B | $6.8B | $6.4B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 15.3% | 25.2% | 31.0% | 26.4% | 17.2% | 20.5% | 19.7% | 20.3% | 28.8% | 32.2% | 20.1% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 5.0% |
| Operating Income | $100M | $72M | $59M | $15M | $43M | $110M | $231M | $344M | $532M | $650M | $970M | $1.2B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.2B |
| Operating Margin | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 21.9% | 23.4% | 30.3% | 30.7% | 34.2% |
| Net Income | $67M | $44M | $25M | $8M | $32M | $31M | $332M | $327M | $489M | $607M | $857M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.1B |
| Net Margin | 12.5% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 18.8% | 18.2% | 19.4% | 21.6% | 29.3% | 27.3% | 33.4% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.08 | $0.05 | $0.03 | $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.38 | $0.37 | $0.58 | $0.73 | $1.06 | $1.46 | $2.26 | $2.42 | $2.79 |
| Free Cash Flow | $162M | $134M | $164M | $245M | $279M | $459M | $586M | $716M | $958M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $1.8B |
| FCF Margin | 30.3% | 21.7% | 21.3% | 24.3% | 21.8% | 30.7% | 32.5% | 33.2% | 36.9% | 36.0% | 32.8% | 32.6% | 31.6% | 32.7% | 28.5% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $534M | $615M | $770M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.4B | $5.3B | $6.0B | $6.8B |
| Growth | — | 15.3% | 25.2% | 31.0% | 26.4% | 17.2% | 20.5% | 19.7% | 20.3% | 28.8% | 32.2% | 20.1% | 12.3% | 14.2% |
| EBIT | $100M | $72M | $59M | $15M | $43M | $110M | $231M | $344M | $532M | $650M | $970M | $1.2B | $1.8B | $2.1B |
| EBIT Margin | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 21.9% | 23.4% | 30.3% | 30.7% |
| NOPAT | $62M | $40M | $30M | $7M | $32M | $55M | $231M | $292M | $479M | $636M | $939M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| D&A | $12M | $16M | $22M | $32M | $49M | $55M | $56M | $62M | $69M | $84M | $104M | $113M | $123M | $152M |
| CapEx | $22M | $14M | $32M | $37M | $67M | $135M | $53M | $92M | $126M | $296M | $281M | $204M | $379M | $365M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $73M | $228M | $41M | $117M | -$20M | $275M | $331M | -$384M | $372M | -$550M | -$23M | $1.2B | -$1.0B |
| Unlevered FCF | $52M | -$30M | -$208M | -$40M | -$104M | -$5M | -$41M | -$70M | $806M | $53M | $1.3B | $1.0B | $62M | $2.5B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$50.71
vs $79.51-36.2%
Exit Multiple
$97.48
vs $79.51+22.6%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B | $8.5B | $9.3B | $10.1B | $10.9B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.5B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| NOPAT Margin | 24.9% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| D&A | $305M | $338M | $372M | $405M | $438M |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $228M | $254M | $279M | $304M | $328M |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $76M | $85M | $93M | $101M | $109M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| PV of UFCF | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $1.7B | $3.5B | $5.3B | $7.2B | $9.0B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$9.0B
PV of Terminal Value$26.6B
Enterprise Value$35.5B
Less: Net Debt$2.0B
Equity Value$37.5B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$9.0B
PV of Terminal Value$61.2B
Enterprise Value$70.1B
Less: Net Debt$2.0B
Equity Value$72.1B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $60.97 | $65.34 | $70.59 | $77.01 | $85.03 |
| 9.0% | $52.36 | $55.42 | $58.99 | $63.21 | $68.27 |
| 10.0% | $45.92 | $48.15 | $50.71 | $53.66 | $57.10 |
| 11.0% | $40.91 | $42.60 | $44.51 | $46.66 | $49.13 |
| 12.0% | $36.91 | $38.23 | $39.69 | $41.32 | $43.16 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 19x | 22x | 25x | 28x | 31x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $84.37 | $95.25 | $106.12 | $116.99 | $127.87 |
| 9.0% | $80.92 | $91.30 | $101.68 | $112.07 | $122.45 |
| 10.0% | $77.64 | $87.56 | $97.48 | $107.40 | $117.32 |
| 11.0% | $74.54 | $84.02 | $93.50 | $102.98 | $112.46 |
| 12.0% | $71.59 | $80.66 | $89.72 | $98.79 | $107.85 |
Investment Thesis
Fortinet is a cybersecurity leader with a differentiated approach combining custom ASICs (FortiGate) with a unified Security Fabric platform. Strong product revenue from firewall refresh cycles, growing services/subscription revenue, and expanding TAM from secure networking convergence (SD-WAN, SASE).
Bull Case
- +Firewall refresh cycle driving product revenue acceleration
- +Unified SASE and secure networking platform gaining share
- +AI-driven security operations (FortiAI) expanding platform value
- +High recurring revenue base with 75%+ gross margins on services
Bear Case
- -Intense competition from Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Zscaler
- -Shift to cloud-native security could pressure appliance-based model
- -Billing growth deceleration signals potential demand slowdown
- -Negative stockholders' equity from aggressive buybacks limits financial flexibility
Key Catalysts
- →Large enterprise deal momentum and government contract wins
- →FortiSASE adoption accelerating
- →Margin expansion from services mix shift
- →Share repurchase program supporting EPS growth
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.