CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Technology·Cybersecurity
Current Price
$384.15
Market Cap
$94.1B
Net Debt
-$3.6B
Shares Outstanding
0.24B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | TTM (Q3 FY2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $481M | $874M | $2.2B | $3.1B | $4.0B | $3.5B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 81.6% | 156.3% | 36.3% | 29.4% | -20.4% |
| Operating Income | -$146M | -$93M | -$190M | -$2M | -$120M | -$54M |
| Operating Margin | -30.3% | -10.6% | -8.5% | -0.1% | -3.0% | -1.6% |
| Net Income | -$142M | -$93M | -$183M | $89M | -$19M | $65M |
| Net Margin | -29.5% | -10.6% | -8.2% | 2.9% | -0.5% | 1.9% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | $-0.42 | $-0.79 | $0.37 | $-0.08 | $0.26 |
| Free Cash Flow | $20M | $304M | $706M | $990M | $1.1B | $362M |
| FCF Margin | 4.1% | 34.7% | 31.5% | 32.4% | 28.5% | 10.4% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $481M | $874M | $2.2B | $3.1B | $4.0B |
| Growth | — | 81.6% | 156.3% | 36.3% | 29.4% |
| EBIT | -$146M | -$93M | -$190M | -$2M | -$120M |
| EBIT Margin | -30.3% | -10.6% | -8.5% | -0.1% | -3.0% |
| NOPAT | -$115M | -$73M | -$150M | -$2M | -$95M |
| D&A | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| CapEx | $80M | $53M | $235M | $177M | $255M |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $750M | $102M | $529M | $592M |
| Unlevered FCF | -$196M | -$876M | -$488M | -$707M | -$942M |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$72.00
vs $384.15-81.3%
Exit Multiple
$143.91
vs $384.15-62.5%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $5.6B | $6.4B | $7.3B | $8.1B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $474M | $728M | $966M | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $380M | $582M | $773M | $989M | $1.2B |
| NOPAT Margin | 8.0% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| D&A | $190M | $224M | $258M | $291M | $323M |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $142M | $168M | $193M | $218M | $242M |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $47M | $56M | $64M | $73M | $81M |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $380M | $582M | $773M | $989M | $1.2B |
| PV of UFCF | $345M | $481M | $580M | $676M | $762M |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $345M | $826M | $1.4B | $2.1B | $2.8B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$2.8B
PV of Terminal Value$11.2B
Enterprise Value$14.1B
Less: Net Debt$3.6B
Equity Value$17.6B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$2.8B
PV of Terminal Value$28.8B
Enterprise Value$31.7B
Less: Net Debt$3.6B
Equity Value$35.3B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $84.93 | $90.51 | $97.21 | $105.39 | $115.62 |
| 9.0% | $74.03 | $77.93 | $82.49 | $87.86 | $94.32 |
| 10.0% | $65.89 | $68.74 | $72.00 | $75.76 | $80.15 |
| 11.0% | $59.57 | $61.73 | $64.16 | $66.91 | $70.05 |
| 12.0% | $54.54 | $56.22 | $58.08 | $60.16 | $62.50 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 19x | 22x | 25x | 28x | 31x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $125.00 | $140.48 | $155.96 | $171.44 | $186.92 |
| 9.0% | $120.21 | $134.99 | $149.77 | $164.55 | $179.34 |
| 10.0% | $115.66 | $129.79 | $143.91 | $158.03 | $172.15 |
| 11.0% | $111.36 | $124.86 | $138.36 | $151.85 | $165.35 |
| 12.0% | $107.28 | $120.18 | $133.09 | $146.00 | $158.90 |
Investment Thesis
CrowdStrike is the leader in cloud-native endpoint security, expanding into a full cybersecurity platform. Strong net dollar retention, growing module adoption per customer, and rapid ARR growth. Transitioning from high-growth to profitable growth phase.
Bull Case
- +Module adoption deepening — customers using 5+ modules growing rapidly
- +Cloud security (Falcon Cloud) and identity (Falcon Identity) expanding TAM
- +Charlotte AI and next-gen SIEM driving platform consolidation wins
- +Operating leverage improving with scale — path to 25%+ GAAP op margins
Bear Case
- -July 2024 global IT outage damaged brand reputation and trust
- -Premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps
- -Intense competition from Microsoft, SentinelOne, Palo Alto Networks
- -Customer commitment deals (CCDs) may pull forward revenue
Key Catalysts
- →Recovery from IT outage incident — customer retention proving resilient
- →Next-gen SIEM (LogScale) displacing Splunk and legacy SIEM
- →Federal/government contract expansion
- →Continued operating margin expansion toward profitability
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-19.