AXP
American Express CompanyFinancials·Consumer Finance / Payments
Current Price
$335.32
Market Cap
$230.4B
Net Debt
$57.0B
Shares Outstanding
0.69B
Financial Statements
| Metric | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.4B | $27.8B | $25.3B | $27.0B | $27.9B | $28.8B | $26.9B | $26.3B | $33.5B | $40.3B | $43.6B | $36.1B | $42.4B | $52.9B | $60.5B | $65.9B | $72.2B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 30.0% | -9.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | -6.7% | -2.0% | 27.0% | 20.5% | 8.0% | -17.1% | 17.4% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Operating Income | $2.8B | $6.0B | $7.0B | $6.5B | $7.9B | $9.0B | $7.9B | $8.1B | $7.4B | $8.1B | $8.4B | $4.3B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Margin | 13.3% | 21.4% | 27.5% | 23.9% | 28.2% | 31.2% | 29.5% | 30.7% | 22.2% | 20.1% | 19.4% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $4.1B | $4.9B | $4.5B | $5.4B | $5.9B | $5.2B | $5.4B | $2.7B | $6.9B | $6.8B | $3.1B | $8.1B | $7.5B | $8.4B | $10.1B | $10.8B |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 14.6% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 19.2% | 20.4% | 19.2% | 20.5% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 8.7% | 19.0% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.54 | $3.35 | $4.12 | $3.89 | $4.88 | $5.60 | $5.15 | $5.78 | $3.09 | $8.06 | $8.14 | $3.89 | $10.02 | $9.85 | $11.21 | $14.01 | $15.38 |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.6B | $8.4B | $9.3B | $6.0B | $7.5B | $9.8B | $9.6B | $6.8B | $12.5B | $7.6B | $12.0B | $4.1B | $13.1B | $19.2B | $17.0B | $12.1B | $16.0B |
| FCF Margin | 26.2% | 30.2% | 36.7% | 22.4% | 27.0% | 34.0% | 35.8% | 26.0% | 37.3% | 18.9% | 27.5% | 11.4% | 30.9% | 36.4% | 28.1% | 18.4% | 22.2% |
Historical Cash Flows
Historical Cash Flows
| ($M) | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.4B | $27.8B | $25.3B | $27.0B | $27.9B | $28.8B | $26.9B | $26.3B | $33.5B | $40.3B | $43.6B | $36.1B | $42.4B | $52.9B | $60.5B | $65.9B | $72.2B |
| Growth | — | 30.0% | -9.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | -6.7% | -2.0% | 27.0% | 20.5% | 8.0% | -17.1% | 17.4% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% |
| EBIT | $2.8B | $6.0B | $7.0B | $6.5B | $7.9B | $9.0B | $7.9B | $8.1B | $7.4B | $8.1B | $8.4B | $4.3B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBIT Margin | 13.3% | 21.4% | 27.5% | 23.9% | 28.2% | 31.2% | 29.5% | 30.7% | 22.2% | 20.1% | 19.4% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NOPAT | $2.1B | $4.1B | $4.9B | $4.5B | $5.4B | $5.9B | $5.2B | $5.4B | $3.7B | $6.9B | $6.8B | $3.1B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| D&A | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| CapEx | $772M | $887M | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.4B |
| ΔNWC | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.4B | $3.2B | $3.7B | $3.4B | $4.4B | $4.7B | $3.8B | $4.0B | $2.6B | $5.6B | $5.1B | $1.7B | -$1.6B | -$1.9B | -$1.6B | -$1.9B | -$2.4B |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$181.24
vs $335.32-46.0%
Exit Multiple
$231.32
vs $335.32-31.0%
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $78.7B | $85.0B | $91.0B | $97.3B | $103.2B |
| Revenue % Chg. | % | % | % | % | % |
| EBIT | $15.0B | $16.6B | $18.2B | $19.5B | $21.2B |
| EBIT Margin | % | % | % | % | % |
| Tax Rate | % | % | % | % | % |
| NOPAT | $11.7B | $13.0B | $14.3B | $15.3B | $16.6B |
| NOPAT Margin | 14.9% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| D&A | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| D&A / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| CapEx | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.4B |
| CapEx / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Chg. NWC | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC / Revenue | % | % | % | % | % |
| Unlevered FCF | $10.3B | $11.5B | $12.6B | $13.5B | $14.7B |
| PV of UFCF | $9.4B | $9.5B | $9.5B | $9.2B | $9.2B |
| Σ PV of UFCF | $9.4B | $18.9B | $28.4B | $37.6B | $46.8B |
%
%
x
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$46.8B
PV of Terminal Value$134.7B
Enterprise Value$181.5B
Less: Net Debt-$57.0B
Equity Value$124.5B
Exit Multiple Method (EV/EBITDA)
PV of FCFs$46.8B
PV of Terminal Value$169.2B
Enterprise Value$215.9B
Less: Net Debt-$57.0B
Equity Value$158.9B
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $237.34 | $261.25 | $289.94 | $325.00 | $368.83 |
| 9.0% | $190.30 | $207.01 | $226.51 | $249.55 | $277.20 |
| 10.0% | $155.05 | $167.27 | $181.24 | $197.35 | $216.15 |
| 11.0% | $127.68 | $136.92 | $147.32 | $159.10 | $172.57 |
| 12.0% | $105.81 | $112.99 | $120.96 | $129.88 | $139.91 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 6x | 9x | 12x | 15x | 18x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $123.90 | $191.36 | $258.83 | $326.30 | $393.77 |
| 9.0% | $115.85 | $180.28 | $244.71 | $309.14 | $373.57 |
| 10.0% | $108.21 | $169.76 | $231.32 | $292.87 | $354.43 |
| 11.0% | $100.95 | $159.78 | $218.62 | $277.45 | $336.28 |
| 12.0% | $94.06 | $150.31 | $206.56 | $262.81 | $319.06 |
Investment Thesis
Premium payments franchise with closed-loop network, affluent customer base providing pricing power, and growing card fee revenue that reduces sensitivity to credit cycles. Trading at ~22x earnings with high-single-digit revenue growth.
Bull Case
- +Premium brand captures growing share of affluent consumer and SMB spending globally
- +Card fee revenue (Platinum, Gold) growing 15%+ annually, reducing credit cycle exposure
- +International expansion: only ~30% of revenue from outside the US vs ~60% for V/MA
- +Share buybacks reducing share count ~3% annually, amplifying EPS growth
Bear Case
- -Credit losses spike in recession — AXP carries card member loans unlike V/MA
- -Loss of key co-brand partnerships (Delta, Hilton) to competing networks
- -Affluent customer spend softens in economic downturn
- -Regulatory risk on interchange/discount fees
Key Catalysts
- →Gen Z/millennial adoption of premium cards driving younger demographic growth
- →SMB card and expense management platform expansion
- →Continued international merchant coverage improvements closing the acceptance gap
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-27.