AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical·Internet Retail
Current Price
$222.69
Market Cap
$2.39T
Net Debt
$-18.0B
Shares Outstanding
10.73B
Financial Summary
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $469.8B | $514.0B | $574.8B | $638.0B | $716.9B |
| Revenue Growth | — | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 12.4% |
| Operating Income | $24.9B | $12.2B | $36.9B | $68.6B | $80.0B |
| Operating Margin | 5.3% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% |
| Net Income | $33.4B | $-2.7B | $30.4B | $59.2B | $77.7B |
| Net Margin | 7.1% | -0.5% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.24 | $-0.27 | $2.90 | $5.53 | $7.17 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-14.7B | $-16.9B | $32.2B | $32.9B | $7.7B |
| FCF Margin | -3.1% | -3.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
DCF Valuation
Adjust the assumptions below to derive your own intrinsic value. All calculations update in real-time.
Perpetuity Growth
$82.96
vs $222.69-62.7%
Exit Multiple
$205.78
vs $222.69-7.6%
Revenue Growth (Y1-Y5)
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EBIT Margin (Y1-Y5)
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Operating Assumptions
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D&A % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
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CapEx % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
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NWC % Revenue (Y1-Y5)
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Discount Rate
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Terminal Value
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Capital Structure
Projected Cash Flows
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $795.8B | $875.4B | $954.1B | $1.03T | $1.10T |
| Growth | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| EBIT | $91.5B | $105.0B | $119.3B | $134.0B | $148.9B |
| EBIT Margin | 11.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.5% |
| NOPAT | $78.7B | $90.3B | $102.6B | $115.2B | $128.0B |
| D&A | $63.7B | $70.0B | $76.3B | $82.4B | $82.7B |
| CapEx | $119.4B | $105.0B | $95.4B | $92.7B | $99.2B |
| ΔNWC | $8.0B | $8.8B | $9.5B | $10.3B | $11.0B |
| Unlevered FCF | $15.0B | $46.6B | $73.9B | $94.6B | $100.4B |
| PV of FCF | $13.4B | $37.1B | $52.6B | $60.1B | $57.0B |
Valuation Waterfall
Perpetuity Method
PV of FCFs$220.3B
PV of Terminal Value$652.3B
Enterprise Value$872.6B
Less: Net Debt$18.0B
Equity Value$890.6B
Exit Multiple Method
PV of FCFs$220.3B
PV of Terminal Value$1.97T
Enterprise Value$2.19T
Less: Net Debt$18.0B
Equity Value$2.21T
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC vs Terminal Growth (Perpetuity)
| WACC \ Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $97.61 | $102.94 | $109.03 | $116.05 | $124.24 |
| 11.0% | $85.79 | $89.81 | $94.35 | $99.48 | $105.35 |
| 12.0% | $76.35 | $79.48 | $82.96 | $86.85 | $91.22 |
| 13.0% | $68.66 | $71.15 | $73.88 | $76.90 | $80.26 |
| 14.0% | $62.28 | $64.28 | $66.47 | $68.87 | $71.51 |
WACC vs Exit Multiple
| WACC \ Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 9x | 12x | 15x | 18x | 21x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $144.07 | $184.25 | $224.43 | $264.61 | $304.79 |
| 11.0% | $138.06 | $176.46 | $214.86 | $253.26 | $291.66 |
| 12.0% | $132.35 | $169.07 | $205.78 | $242.50 | $279.22 |
| 13.0% | $126.93 | $162.05 | $197.17 | $232.30 | $267.42 |
| 14.0% | $121.79 | $155.40 | $189.01 | $222.61 | $256.22 |
Investment Thesis
Amazon is the dominant e-commerce and cloud infrastructure leader, with AWS benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout. High CapEx ($128B in FY2025) is the key risk, but operating leverage is improving with margins expanding from 2.4% (FY2022) to 11.2% (FY2025).
Bull Case
- +AWS benefits from AI infrastructure buildout with 20% YoY growth
- +Operating margins continue expanding toward 14-15% as retail matures
- +CapEx normalizes from peak FY2026 levels, unlocking FCF
- +Advertising segment growing rapidly with high margins
- +International segment turning profitable with scale
Bear Case
- -$200B+ cumulative CapEx guidance may not generate adequate returns
- -AWS competition intensifying from Azure and GCP
- -Antitrust regulatory pressure on e-commerce dominance
- -Consumer spending slowdown impacting retail revenue
- -Margin compression from heavy AI investment cycle
Key Catalysts
- →AWS growth trajectory and AI workload adoption
- →CapEx normalization timeline post-AI infrastructure build
- →Advertising revenue growth rate
- →International profitability inflection
- →Q1 FY2026 guidance: $173.5B-$178.5B revenue
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All projections are estimates based on publicly available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Last updated: 2026-02-06.