The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since February 28.

If you've been watching oil prices climb and wondering what to do about it, this issue breaks down the numbers, the sectors, and the trades - so you can think clearly instead of reacting to headlines.

The Numbers That Matter

Before the conflict, ~100-130 cargo vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz every day. Crude tankers, LNG carriers, chemical tankers, bulk carriers.

Today? Near zero.

Source: Lloyd's List Intelligence / Seasearcher. Note the cliff around March 1.

Here's what that translates to:

• 20 million barrels/day of oil (20% of global supply)

• ~19% of global LNG trade (nearly all of Qatar and UAE's LNG exports)

• ~1/3 of global fertilizer exports (primarily to Asia)

And yesterday, Trump said the war could end in "2-3 weeks" - but the White House confirmed that reopening the Strait is not one of its core objectives.

Read that again. The war ending doesn't mean the Strait reopens.

There Is No Alternative (Not Really)

The total pipeline bypass capacity around the Strait is about 2.6 million barrels/day. That covers roughly 13% of normal flows. And there is no pipeline alternative for LNG at all - it's ship or nothing.

The IEA already announced the largest emergency oil release in its 50-year history: 400 million barrels. That buys about 20 days of Hormuz-equivalent flows. Markets shrugged - Brent kept rising after the announcement.

Who Gets Hurt

Asia is most exposed. Japan imports 95% of its crude through the Strait. South Korea: 70%. India: 60%. China: 50%.

The ETFs tell the story: EWY (South Korea) dropped 13.9% in the first week. EWJ (Japan) fell 6.4%.

Airlines are bleeding from jet fuel costs. European manufacturers face feedstock shortages. And the fertilizer disruption is hitting during northern hemisphere planting season - the timing couldn't be worse.

Who Benefits

US energy producers are the clearest winners. Permian Basin oil has a breakeven around $35/barrel. With WTI above $100, the math is extraordinary.

US LNG exporters - particularly Cheniere Energy - are seeing Europe scramble to replace Qatari supply. The US was already providing 60% of Europe's LNG before the conflict. That share is only growing.

Tanker companies like Frontline are charging $200,000+/day for VLCC charters. FRO is up over 51% year-to-date.

US fertilizer producers like CF Industries have a structural cost advantage - cheap domestic natural gas while global prices surge. Urea prices have jumped from $475 to $680 per metric ton.

What Should You Actually Do?

Here's how I'm thinking about this:

1. Check your exposure.
If you hold Asian ETFs (EWJ, EWY, INDA) or airline stocks, understand that you're holding a "Strait reopens" bet. That might be the right trade - but make it intentionally, not by accident.

2. Understand the binary.
Trump's "2-3 weeks" comment creates a decision point around mid-to-late April. If the Strait reopens: oil crashes, tankers crater, Asian ETFs rally, airlines recover. If it doesn't: the current trend continues and recession odds climb. EY-Parthenon puts US recession probability at 40% if the closure persists.

3. The reopening trade exists but has timing risk.
Buying beaten-down Asian industrials or airlines is a bet on resolution. The thesis is solid - EWY is down 13.9% partly on oil, partly on chip selloff. There's asymmetric upside if the Strait reopens. But "2-3 weeks" from a president is not a guarantee.

4. Energy exposure is a hedge, not a speculation.
If you don't have any energy in your portfolio, you're implicitly short oil in an environment where 20% of global supply is offline. XLE, individual oil majors, or even BNO (Brent ETF) give you some hedge against further escalation.

5. Watch fertilizer - it's the underreported story.
One-third of global fertilizer exports transit Hormuz. Northern hemisphere planting is underway. If this drags into May, food price inflation becomes the next headline. CF Industries is the US name most exposed to this dynamic.

The Bigger Picture

One analyst framing worth considering (from energy analyst Anas Alhajji): the closure makes US oil and gas exports far more competitive globally. Whether intentional or not, the end result is Europe and Asia becoming more dependent on US hydrocarbons.

I'd be cautious about adopting any single geopolitical narrative as gospel. But the supply data is real, the price moves are real, and the portfolio implications are concrete.

The Strait will eventually reopen. The question is when, and what you want your portfolio to look like in each scenario.

I share investing frameworks and analysis like this every week. If you found this useful, forward it to someone who's wondering what's happening with oil prices.

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